Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 5S and 5C are off to a quick start, but sales activity could slow down significantly early next year.
Apple's iPhone sales could face some disappointment in the first half of 2014 when the new smartphones experience what has been a historical drop-off after their initial sales, Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi said in a note Friday. He says sales of the newest iPhones are skewing more heavily toward the initial two quarters than did last year's iPhone 5.
He estimates December-quarter iPhone sales of 32.5 million units, while Wall Street's consensus is 31.5 million. For the March quarter, Sacconaghi predicts 58.5 million iPhone sales, vs. consensus views of 52 million to 53 million.
Apple CEO Tim Cook talks about the company's new iPhone 5C smartphone during a product announcement at Apple headquarters in Cupertino, Calif., on... View Enlarged Image
But in the June quarter, he sees iPhone sales of 39.2 million units, vs. the consensus target of 42 million. In the September 2014 quarter, he predicts iPhone sales of 33.3 million units, vs. consensus views of 35 million.
The iPhone 5S and 5C launch was different from previous launches in that Apple added a major carrier in Japan's NTT DoCoMo (DCM) and launched in China right from the start, Sacconaghi says.
"The upshot is that we expect an even more pronounced impact from new iPhones in the September and December quarters this year, but a steeper fall off," he wrote. "In fact, we believe that December iPhone sales might increase by 80% to 90%-plus, while March iPhone units could decline by 30% or more sequentially, well above last year's 22% decline."
Consensus estimates do not yet reflect "this skewed seasonality," he wrote.
His iPhone sales estimates do not factor in a rumored distribution deal with China Mobile (CHL), the largest wireless carrier in China.
Sacconaghi maintains his outperform rating on Apple stock, with a price target of 600. In afternoon trading in the stock market Monday, Apple was down 1%, near 478.
Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry raised his price target on Apple to 725 from 650 on "extremely strong" iPhone 5S sales. The high-end handset's 64-bit processor, operating system and apps give Apple a 12- to 18-month lead over Google (GOOG) Android rivals, he said in a research note Sunday.
Apple also is seeing sales of its colorful midrange iPhone 5C picking up, Chowdhry says. Plus, phone peripherals and App Store sales are accelerating, he says.
On Monday, Apple surpassed Coca-Cola (KO) as the world's most valuable brand, according to a report from marketing firm Interbrand. The soft-drink company had been the top company for 13 years, since the start of the annual report. This year, Coca-Cola fell to third place behind No. 2 Google, Interbrand said.
RELATED:
Forget the gold iPhone, Apple still the most innovative company
Apple Jumps On iPhone Sales, Upbeat Revenue Outlook
